Tariffs on Canadian lumber entering the US are anticipated to more than double by September, according to the US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
The US Department of Commerce has made a preliminary determination to significantly increase tariffs on Canadian lumber imports.
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The current combined countervailing and anti-dumping duties of 14.5% may rise to 34.5% following the annual review, with the official determination to be published in the Federal Register this week.
The higher tariffs, resulting from a longstanding trade dispute, are expected to come into effect after a final review in August or September.
This move is separate from the global reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, who has maintained exemptions for Canadian lumber under the new tariffs.
President Trump’s 1 March order called for boosting timber production from federal lands by 25%, aiming to reduce reliance on imports as the US does not produce enough lumber to meet its demand.
Despite this effort towards self-sufficiency, logistical challenges and the time required to increase sawmill production mean that the market is unlikely to feel the impact immediately.
NAHB has expressed concern that tariffs could exceed 34.5% later in the year.
The association has filed a comment letter with the Department of Commerce, arguing that housing is a critical component of national security and opposing further tariffs. The worst-case scenario would be an additional tariff on top of the proposed increase.
For the moment, Canadian lumber tariffs remain at 14.5%, but industry stakeholders are advised to prepare for higher tariffs later in the year.
NAHB states that it continues to advocate for the rollback of lumber tariffs and seeks to improve the building material supply chain to alleviate costs for its members.
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